Wastepaper: The Mismatch of a Growing Market and Transport Trends

Waste Paper Exports: Why Higher Volumes Don’t Mean More Shipments

In recent years, the export of wastepaper has experienced strong fluctuations. The market has been driven primarily by Asian demand, logistical challenges following the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions that have complicated global trade.

Italy remains one of Europe’s main producers and exporters of wastepaper, but it is gradually shifting toward greater domestic use of recycled material. This rebalancing reduces dependence on distant markets and explains why increased collection volumes do not automatically translate into a proportional rise in international transport.

Wastepaper in Italy: Growing Recycling and Increased Domestic Consumption

Thanks to widespread separate collection systems and a robust paper industry, Italy has consolidated its position among the leading European countries for wastepaper production.

In recent years, domestic consumption has increased, especially in the packaging sector, while exports abroad have slowed. The result is a structural market rebalancing: a growing share of waste paper is now reused within national borders rather than shipped overseas.

Despite some bureaucratic complexities, paper recycling remains a strong point of the Italian system, in line with circular economy objectives.

European Paper Market: Resilient Packaging and Rising Prices

At the European level, paper production has slowed, but the packaging segment continues to perform well and remains the main driver of demand.

Wastepaper flows are concentrated mainly toward India, Indonesia, and Turkey, which absorb a large portion of European exports. However, this geographic concentration creates vulnerability related to prices, energy costs, and transport availability.

Rising demand and high energy prices have driven packaging paper prices up, reversing the downward trend observed in previous years.

    Italian Wastepaper Exports to Asia and the Mediterranean: Unstable Routes

    Italian wastepaper exports to the Far East, particularly India and Pakistan, have alternated between periods of boom and contraction, influenced by local restrictions and strong demand fluctuations.

    In the Mediterranean basin, Turkey and Egypt represent growing markets. However, Houthi attacks and challenges in the Suez Canal have forced many ships to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending sailing times.

    Overall, exports remain important in the sector, but volumes are lower than the peaks reached in the recent past.

    Post-Covid Maritime Logistics: Rising Costs and Pressure on CIF Prices

    Since the post-pandemic period, maritime logistics has had a decisive impact on Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) prices for wastepaper.

    Seasonal surcharges, fuel adjustments, port congestion and reduced stowage capacity have substantially increased shipping costs to Asia. Crises in the Red Sea have further worsened the situation, causing delays and reducing service reliability.

    Land transport costs to ports such as Genoa and La Spezia have also risen due to queues, overloading and port surcharges. All of this has resulted in significantly higher arrival prices compared to the pre-pandemic period, reducing the profit margins of Italian exporters.

    2026 Outlook for Waste Paper: Recovery in Demand but a Vulnerable Market

    Looking ahead to 2026, European demand for packaging is expected to gradually recover, supported by stable domestic consumption and a growing commitment to the circular economy.

    The wastepaper market remains exposed to fluctuations in Asian and Mediterranean demand. Routes to the Far East and countries such as Turkey and Egypt will continue to require highly efficient logistics to maintain competitive Italian CIF prices.

    Port congestion, variable surcharges and geopolitical instability will remain key factors to monitor for the medium-term sustainability of exports.